In Part 1 of our spring training Rangers mailbag, we focused on questions about the major-league club. Here, in Part 2, we turn our attention to the organization’s prospects.
Note: Some questions have been edited lightly for length and clarity.
Could Evan Carter make the bigs this year? — Matthew G.
Unlikely, but yes. If he’s pulling a Michael Harris — who was so good as a 21-year-old in Double A last spring that he made the jump to Atlanta late in May and won NL Rookie of the Year — there’s probably a scenario in which the Rangers might view Carter (who will be 21 in August) as one of their three best outfield bets. Chances are better that 2024 is his year.
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Who are the top Rangers position player prospects of all time and how does Carter stack up against those players? — Steve D.
When I tackled a related exercise four years ago, my top three were, in order, Juan Gonzalez, Ruben Mateo and Mark Teixeira. Carter doesn’t pierce that triumvirate for me, but somewhere in the Hank Blalock-Ruben Sierra-Jurickson Profar tier at Nos. 4-5-6? That seems about right for where Carter might track, assuming he takes another minor-league step forward this season.
Let’s say you are the GM and the owner tells you to devise a plan to replace each member of this year’s projected rotation with guys who are currently in our system, and he wants the transition completed within the next five years. Who do you think the five pitchers will be, with an ETA for each? — Bennie B.
In a question last week that simply asked for the 2028 rotation, with no conditions, I pegged Brock Porter (age 19) and Leandro Calderon (age 20) to join Jacob deGrom, Triston McKenzie and Roki Sasaki. Porter and Calderon are expected to team up when the Arizona Complex League starts play in June, and even if all goes to plan, both are years away.
But that’s OK. Ideally, especially given the expectation that Texas will be in the pennant race these next five seasons, I’ll want to bring the young pitchers in one at a time — add one to the rotation in 2024, and then one each in 2025, 2026, 2027 and 2028.
I’m going to tell ownership to be prepared for at least one and maybe two of Owen White, Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker to be traded before they’re established members of the Rangers rotation. With that, here’s the plan:
Owen White (currently age 23): 2024
Tekoah Roby (age 21): 2025
Mitch Bratt (age 19): 2026
Brock Porter (age 19): 2027
Leandro Calderon (age 20): 2028
Justin Foscue. (Charlie Riedel / AP Photo)Given Justin Foscue’s hitting skills, could you see him as the DH in Arlington by the end of the 2023 season and beyond? — Mark H.
Not really. The Rangers plan to get Foscue work at the infield corners in Round Rock in addition to his second base duties, to increase his versatility (not to mention his trade value). While he is unquestionably a bat-first player, it’s just so rare to ask a major-league rookie to DH full-time – Yordan Alvarez notwithstanding.
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How does Dustin Harris fit? And who reaches first, Carter or Aaron Zavala? — Jeff F.
Something interesting happened a week into Cactus League play. After the Rangers converted Harris from the infield corners to the outfield in 2022 and played him solely in the outfield in the early going this spring, on March 3 he started getting action at first base again – and only first base (with the exception of three innings late in his final appearance). Whether that signals a shift in plans for Harris in 2023 remains to be seen, but he’s not a natural on the grass and it might be that the Rangers are rethinking what the best path for him to help the big-league club will be.
If Zavala didn’t have elbow surgery in October, he certainly would have been in major-league camp on a non-roster invite like Carter is and gotten a healthy dose of action. Instead, Zavala will be sidelined until midseason. I still don’t think it’s out of the question that Zavala arrives first. He’s two years older and his approach at the plate might be the only one in the system more advanced than Carter’s.
What is Luisangel Acuña’s path to the Rangers with second base and shortstop locked down? Is center field his best path? Or is he a nice trade piece at this point? — Michael R.
How the Rangers treat Acuña this year is one of the things I’m most interested in seeing. He’s a very good shortstop, better probably than many thought he’d be. With an offensive game like his, the prevailing wisdom is probably to keep getting him reps at the position. If Corey Seager were to miss significant time late this year or in 2024, there must be a decent option aside from sliding Marcus Semien across the bag. Plus, keeping Acuña at shortstop theoretically maximizes his trade value.
But so could added versatility. Acuña in center field is an intriguing idea. And now that he’s on the 40-man roster, there would be some benefit to making him an option at several spots on the field. This is one to check back in on at midseason.
If the Rangers get Mason Englert back from the Tigers, where would he slot in on your list of prospects? What percentage do you give of that happening? — Austin M.
I wish a contending team like the Red Sox or Mets had Rule 5’d Englert; Detroit has far less to lose earmarking a 2023 roster spot to invest in Englert’s long term. The 23-year-old has allowed three runs in seven Grapefruit League innings for the Tigers, striking out eight and issuing one walk. I’m sure the Rangers hope the Tigers (and 28 other teams) pass on keeping him in the majors all year, allowing Texas to reacquire him. I’d probably slot him right now between No. 15 in the Rangers system (where I have 16-year-old Sebastian Walcott) and No. 20 (where I’ve got infielder-outfielder Jonathan Ornelas).
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I’m not a Josh Smith hater, but does Ornelas offer a better bat with the same defensive versatility? — James B.
It’s an interesting question, and one that wouldn’t have been asked a year ago. Smith was a fast-rising prospect who had a .963 OPS in 2021, his first season in the minor leagues – a year that saw him included as a key piece in the Joey Gallo trade to the Yankees. Meanwhile, Ornelas posted an OPS of .704 that year in High Class A, and the only edge he had on Smith was in his versatility defensively; Ornelas played four positions in 2021 while Smith was one second-base appearance short of playing nothing but shortstop.
Both players took big steps forward in 2022 but in different ways. Smith spent most of it in the majors, playing primarily at third base and in the outfield. Ornelas had his breakout season at just the right time, leading the Rangers system in hits with a career-best 14 home runs and earning the organization’s nod as Minor League Defender of the Year while playing all over the infield for Double-A Frisco as well as in center field. The Rangers added Ornelas to the roster after the season and he’s had a busy and productive camp. He’s played the second-most games on the team and has an .826 OPS in the process. Smith, meanwhile, has picked things up after a slow start at the plate in Arizona; he has an .842 OPS after a disappointing .556 mark in his 73-game rookie campaign.
Though he was optioned on March 13, Ornelas is very much in the picture, far ahead of where he stood going into 2022.
Two guys we know about, and two guys we don’t know a ton about that you’ll be paying extra close attention to during your annual spring training trip? — Dustin K.
Well known: Brock Porter and Anthony Gutierrez.
Lesser known: Sebastian Walcott and Winston Santos.
Rocker, Leiter, Porter, Cole Winn, Cole Ragans, White: Who is in the bigs (1 this year (2 next year (3 traded? — Shawn W.
Ragans is unquestionably a 2023 major leaguer, possibly as soon as Opening Day if the club decides to move him to the bullpen. Winn is the only other pitcher on your list with Triple-A experience but there’s a very good chance that White beats him to Arlington. Both of the 2018 draftees are good bets to show up this season or in 2024 at the latest. Leiter is probably also a 2024 projection, but Rocker probably won’t be that soon (unless shifted to relief) and Porter certainly won’t.
As for trades, Porter is probably the least likely to be traded within a year or two. White has the most value but it would take a blockbuster for the Rangers to consider moving him, and with the camp that Ragans is having, Texas surely has no interest in letting another team figure out how much higher his ceiling is than originally thought. Leiter and Winn are probably the best candidates to be dealt, but right now the Rangers would have to sell low on either one and that’s not particularly good business.
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As for Rocker, the mystery is such that the Rangers probably wouldn’t entertain moving him without first seeing how things look against pro hitters – and at the same time, teams probably aren’t asking, either.
What is your best guess on the Frisco starting rotation at the beginning of the season? — James M.
Leiter, White (though he could start in Round Rock), Ricky Vanasco, Roby, Dane Acker, and Ryan Garcia.
Looks like we are stacked with talent for the Triple-A and Double-A rotations so some starters may begin their inevitable transition to the pen. Who do you think the starters at each place will be and what prospects begin the transition to relief pitchers? — Dwayne A.
I spitballed the Double-A rotation above. Triple A is trickier, because we don’t know which veteran non-roster invites have outs in their deals if they don’t make the big club. The pool of Round Rock candidates probably includes Dane Dunning and Glenn Otto; we don’t yet know what the club’s plans are for Ragans, who could break camp with Texas as a power reliever even though he’s being stretched out as a starter. Winn and Zak Kent will probably fill two more of the six slots, and Cody Bradford might be earmarked for another. So could White if the Rangers consider his four Double-A starts last summer to be enough. They might. Then there are the cases of Spencer Howard and Jake Latz, who failed to take steps forward in 2022. What’s the organization’s appetite for giving them one more chance to start games?
All that said, the last part of your question is the most intriguing. Will the Rangers extend the late-season bullpen experiment with big lefty Antoine Kelly (half of the return from Milwaukee for Matt Bush)? Is it time for Vanasco to make his own transition to relief? The “reliever risk” has always been part of the profile for both.
Who are you eyeing for pick 1.4 in the draft? — Brett P.
Too soon, but the Max Clark idea is intriguing. Imagine the tooled-up duo of Clark and Gutierrez, both now 18, knocking on the door about three years from now with Carter and Zavala already in place. There is speculation, though, that one of the two pitchers presently viewed as the best in the draft, LSU’s Paul Skenes and Tennessee’s Chase Dollander, could be there when the Rangers are on the clock. But again: it’s early.
(Top photo of Evan Carter: Ben Ludeman / Texas Rangers / Getty Images)
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